471 "with" versus "for"

What is happening with covid in San Francisco? I'm not there, so it's hard for me to get a real read.

The omicron variant is just now arriving in the Inland Northwest, but I'll be back in SF before it really blows up here. And from what I can see, it will. It's already beginning.

One of my theater colleagues is also a teacher in the city. Something like half of the teachers have been out at his school. This is apparently because if you test positive, you've got to quarantine, regardless of symptoms. 

So now there's a confused scramble to change the rules.

Then there's the shortage of tests. And shortage of staff to give out tests.

Are you getting the sense that there's a towel about to be thrown in the ring?

We've gone from a fourteen day quarantine to a five day quarantine to... Come to work at the nursing home as long as you aren't showing symptoms?

Oh, and the actual case numbers are much worse. Because not everyone is getting tested and entered into the official statistics.

But it's still not quite the common cold. Or flu. 

For the first time in the pandemic, I've had multiple "friends" (people I'm somehow connected to via social media) getting sick. 2-3 days until symptoms, 96 hours of misery. 

And worse if you're not vaccinated. I have at least one "friend" in that category, who got sick last week, wasn't tested, and seems to have moved on, luckily.

This chart is a little deceptive, because it ends 12/12, before omicron started to blow up in California. What will it look like in three weeks? That bottom line, the vaxxed, is likely to not move much.

So now there's a distinction being drawn about hospitalization metrics, too. Lots of people, 70% of the people in the hospital "with" covid didn't know they had covid, they checked in for another reason. 

The other category is "for" or "because of" covid. A big difference. You don't want to be in this category.

Meanwhile, the East coast is starting to "flatten the curve." What are they doing? Is it policy? Has NYC locked down? Are people being cautious on our own, or is the bug just running the course? Are people not bothering to be tested? 

Is this what the end of a pandemic looks like?

Clearly I have more questions than answers.

It took omicron one month to take over. Once again, I find myself asking what it would look like if we all focused on the yearly flu strain, gave it a Greek alphabet name, and all madly watched the statistics.

Just be safe, ok? 

Sorry, but I don't know what "safe" looks like. 

So, how about a picture of cats on a starlink dish? (They're heated... For snow..

Whoops.)

Follow up: I messaged my infectious disease doctor friend for his take.

He was fresh out of a ten day quarantine in a hotel in Panama. He discovered he had covid while getting a mandatory test at the airport. He otherwise wouldn't have known.

He says if you're vaccinated, carry on with life.

Then he brought up the new California guidelines, going into effect this evening. No gatherings more than five people, bars must close at 8pm.

His take?

"It is a joke."

Or wait, maybe the joke was on me, because I clicked through the link he shared, and it led to a naked man.

So yeah, we're at that point in the pandemic.